Industry to See Continued Short-Term Growth
U.S. casting sales are forecast to grow moderately in all metals through 2016, and then flatten out in the long term through 2023.
An MCDP Staff Report
(Click here to see the story as it appears in the Jan.Feb. issue of Metal Casting Design & Purchasing.)
U.S. metalcasting industry sales is expected to reach $33.51 billion in 2017, according to the 2015 Metalcasting Forecast and Trends report published by the American Foundry Society, Schaumburg, Ill. This growth represents a continued recovery from the dramatic recession that began at the end of 2008 and continued through the first part of 2010. After shipping $31.5 billion in castings in 2007, the industry bottomed out at $21.6 billion in shipments in 2009 at the depth of the recession. The industry began to rebound in 2010 with an estimated growth of 18% from the previous year to $25.46 billion, and this continued in 2011, when sales reached $29.64 billion.
All metals are expected to see sales growth in the short term. Investment cast steel, aluminum and copper see forecast growth rates above 3% from 2014 to 2016, while compacted graphite iron is expected to jump 4.82%.
Compacted graphite iron’s growth is forecast to come from the engine, turbine and power transmission equipment market. Investment cast steel growth should be spurred by significant growth in the sporting and athletic goods, small arms manufacturing and industrial valve markets. Aluminum should see a bump in the power transmission, controls and transportation markets.
The U.S. metalcasting industry is made up of 1,965 facilities, down from 2,170 five years ago. This reduction can be attributed to the recession, technological advancements, foreign competition and tightening regulations. Industry capacity is 15.5 million tons, with the industry forecast to operate at 81% of capacity in 2015
The U.S. is second in the world in casting shipments based on tonnage, following China and ahead of India. Based on the data secured through the “2013 Annual Census of World Casting Production” by Modern Casting magazine, China shipped 44.5 million metric tons of castings in 2013 compared to 12.3 million metric tons by the U.S. and 9.81 million by India. Following the U.S. and India are Japan (5.54 million metric tons), Germany (5.19), Russia (4.1), Brazil (3.07), Korea (2.56), Italy (1.97) and France (1.75).
In the following pages of this report are tables depicting the breakdown of U.S. casting shipments by metal and end-use market with a forecast to 2023. This data is an estimated forecast based on an economic modeling tool and should be used only as an estimate. AFS cannot be held liable for its accuracy.